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Affordability Index Update: Can Buyers Afford Today's Prices? September 14, 2026}

September 2026 affordability index rises to 104.7 as median income of $106,800 supports a $410,700 home at 6.76% 30-year rates.

September 14, 2026·3 min read

Affordability Index Trends

The National Association of REALTORS® Housing Affordability (Fixed Rate) Index reached 104.7 in August 2026, up from 102.8 in July and 101.8 in June, according to FRED data. An index above 100 indicates that a household earning the median income has sufficient income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home under current underwriting standards.

Current Rate Environment

Live FRED data as of September 10, 2026 show the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.76%, the 15-year fixed at 6.09%, and the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95%, producing a 1.81% spread. These rates remain elevated relative to the 2020–2021 period, yet the affordability index has improved modestly as wage growth outpaces price appreciation in some markets.

Income and Price Benchmarks

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index for Q2 2026 uses a national median income of $106,800 and a median new-home price of $410,700. The median existing-home price stands at $434,900. These figures imply that a buyer with the median income can now cover principal, interest, taxes, and insurance on a median new home, assuming standard 20% down and a 28% front-end DTI ratio.

Regional Variations

State-level data reveal wide dispersion. In California, the 2026 Q2 Housing Affordability Tracker reports that median monthly ownership costs for a typical home reached approximately $4,600—66% higher than median rents—highlighting continued pressure in high-cost coastal markets. Conversely, Midwest metros such as Indianapolis and Kansas City show affordability indices above 130, driven by slower price growth and lower property taxes.

Monthly Index Snapshot

Month (2026)NAR Affordability Index
August104.7
July102.8
June101.8
May105.1
April108.0

Drivers Behind the Numbers

Three factors underpin the modest rebound in the index. First, year-over-year wage growth of 4.1% has lifted the median income faster than home-price growth of 2.8%. Second, mortgage rates have stabilized near 6.76%, removing some of the payment shock observed in 2023–2024. Third, inventory gains in Sun Belt metros have tempered price escalation, improving the price-to-income ratio.

Outlook and Caveats

The next NAR metropolitan release is scheduled for October 29, 2026. Analysts note that any sustained decline in 30-year rates below 6.5% would further lift the index, while renewed inventory shortages could offset those gains. Readers can run live scenarios at HomeRates.ai to test how rate movements or income changes affect qualification on specific price points.

Bottom Line

As of September 14, 2026, the national housing affordability index sits at 104.7—indicating that median-income households can now qualify for a median-priced home at prevailing 6.76% mortgage rates. Local conditions vary sharply; buyers in lower-cost regions enjoy greater headroom, while coastal markets remain stretched.

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